USD uptrend likely to take a breather with the reopening of investigations into Clinton's emails by FBI, leading to uncertainties surrounding the US Presidential Elections in Nov.
Markets are likely to remain jittery over the potential crystallization of broadly undesired outcome of the non-election of Clinton to the White House-which is calls to recent memory of market disjolts over the Brexit outcome.
Chain reaction spilling into global equities and bonds markets are expected to play out in the coming week.
Saturday, 29 October 2016
Monday, 24 October 2016
China Property is so attractive, cuoples are divorcing over it
As top-tiered cities such as Shanghai moves towards cooling down skyrocketing property prices. Couples are moving towards bypassing loopholes, even to the extent of divorcing to purchase more properties.
Thursday, 20 October 2016
US Elections
Geopolitical implications arising from the upcoming Nov16 US elections looms larger than ever with global market roiling between gains and losses.
As the US closes its doors and focus inwardly to its domestic elections, global allies remain increasingly fidgety over the possibility of an unpredictable presidential election and a wildcard candidate emerging as the President to the US.
Indeed the three presidential candidate debates which just ended on 20Oct16 are probably the most-watched events globally, rather than domestically - for global policy and economic actors concerned with the crystallization of a previously-impossible outcome, and implications to the world's economic and political landscape.
As the US closes its doors and focus inwardly to its domestic elections, global allies remain increasingly fidgety over the possibility of an unpredictable presidential election and a wildcard candidate emerging as the President to the US.
Indeed the three presidential candidate debates which just ended on 20Oct16 are probably the most-watched events globally, rather than domestically - for global policy and economic actors concerned with the crystallization of a previously-impossible outcome, and implications to the world's economic and political landscape.
1MDB perpetrators
Jho Low and Riza remains effectively scot-free - country has been ripped off in excess of USD1b and more
Electoral tricks
Rise of the red-shirts=paid for mercenaries by pro-PM forces. Qns: who paid? with whose $?
Red shirts causing public disorders, unruly and violent threats and behaviors to the public including the targeted yellow-shirts=> to create public confusion and attempt to push blame towards the aim of extinguishing yellow shirts' campaign to create social awareness for social issues including general corruption and plundering of the country.
Red shirts causing public disorders, unruly and violent threats and behaviors to the public including the targeted yellow-shirts=> to create public confusion and attempt to push blame towards the aim of extinguishing yellow shirts' campaign to create social awareness for social issues including general corruption and plundering of the country.
Wednesday, 19 October 2016
Developing failed economy and nation
Once a vibrant economy, richly-endowed with resources including crude and palm oil - Malaysia has since the 1980s fallen out of the ranks with the Asian Tigers such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
With each passing day and year, disparities with neighboring Singapore that has since reached developed nation status became more glaring - not by default disadvantage, rather through cumulative mis-governance and leakages (if not outright corruption) from the nation's economy.
At the receiving end of this living tragedy is the country's people, regardless of their race and religion - while unfortunately its leaders have over the years successfully polarized the electorates along racial and religious lines to gain political expediency and survival.
With each passing day and year, disparities with neighboring Singapore that has since reached developed nation status became more glaring - not by default disadvantage, rather through cumulative mis-governance and leakages (if not outright corruption) from the nation's economy.
At the receiving end of this living tragedy is the country's people, regardless of their race and religion - while unfortunately its leaders have over the years successfully polarized the electorates along racial and religious lines to gain political expediency and survival.
Friday, 14 October 2016
Aeon Credit
Robust 2H17 results for quarter ending 31Aug16. Against macro headwinds and industry margin-compression pressures, the niche consumer financing player delivered solid QoQ/HoH revenue gains of 17.67%/15.09% (+).
PBT/PAT-wise: parallel uptrends are registered at 13.85%/11.92% and 13.83%/10.49%.
EPS grew in tandem @ 14.79% QoQ (11.18% HoH).
NA +8.26% to MYR5.93 => P/B @ 2.53x.
Interim dividend of MYR0.305 is declared payable on 7Nov16 - with expected full year DPS @ MYR0.64 yielding expected DY @ 4.01% (0.601/14.98) - 4.27% (0.64/14.98).
Assuming 1H's contribution @ c. 47%, expected full year earnings @ MYR1.64. @ 10x-12x of fPE=>TP @ 16.42-19.70.
Next key earnings season: c. 16-22Dec16, 21Apr17 (Div. ex/pay by c. 24Jun17/15Jul17).
TP by Kenanga/AffinHwang 5Oct16: 17.76/16.60 (+18.56%/+10.81%)
PBT/PAT-wise: parallel uptrends are registered at 13.85%/11.92% and 13.83%/10.49%.
EPS grew in tandem @ 14.79% QoQ (11.18% HoH).
NA +8.26% to MYR5.93 => P/B @ 2.53x.
Interim dividend of MYR0.305 is declared payable on 7Nov16 - with expected full year DPS @ MYR0.64 yielding expected DY @ 4.01% (0.601/14.98) - 4.27% (0.64/14.98).
Assuming 1H's contribution @ c. 47%, expected full year earnings @ MYR1.64. @ 10x-12x of fPE=>TP @ 16.42-19.70.
Next key earnings season: c. 16-22Dec16, 21Apr17 (Div. ex/pay by c. 24Jun17/15Jul17).
TP by Kenanga/AffinHwang 5Oct16: 17.76/16.60 (+18.56%/+10.81%)
Tuesday, 11 October 2016
The largest money laundering haven
Having successfully moulded itself as a money laundering haven in the 1980s onwards, Singapore had first targeted and garnered funds from Indonesian Chinese who were targeted by racial discrimination back in Indonesia.
The 1997 Asia Financial Crisis proved to be a boon for Singapore with the onset of ethnic cleansing of Chinese in Indonesia, where wealthy Indonesian Chinese flocked and repatriated funds into the Singapore banking system and real estate - helping to propel the resource-strapped country.
Fast forward to 2013 - current, Singapore has yet emerged on global headlines as the first and final line of illegal money laundering. This time by the ruling political member in neighboring Malaysia who siphoned off USD681m vide a network of banks in Singapore in the 1MDB fiasco.
Given that it would have been impossible for the Singapore authorities and Central Bank (the Monetary Authority of Singapore or MAS) to miss out on the large quantum of fund flow, it has been indeed surprising that Singapore had remained surprisingly quiet on the 1MDB fiasco throughout much of the earlier investigations up till as late as 2015.
It was only with the Swiss and more prominently the US investigators having openly announced their intentions on the investigations, that the Singapore authorities including MAS seemingly " sprung alive." In that, they were ' surprisingly' fast in coming out with evidence of wrong-doing and targeted individuals/institutions - which naturally pointed to the conclusion that the Singapore authorities were already in knowledge and complicit to the transactions and laundering activities (but why were they not acting before the U.S./Swiss authorities?).
In the realm of pragmatically pursuing national interests (at all costs, and the expense of other sovereigns), the 1MDB fiasco has proven to be exactly that.
Indeed if recent memories were to be recalled, the leading Singapore political leader has continuously warmed up to his Malaysian counterpart (who was the leading perpetrator to the 1MDB fiasco) in recent years - possibly with the former in knowledge of much more hindsight of his new-found chum's hidden skeletons. In which one of the much publicized but least scrutinized being the ceding of prime stretches of Malaysian railroad lands in Singapore (to Singapore) in exchange for some land development rights in Singapore - in which the exchange and potential value (of exchange) is very much in favour of Singapore - which begs the question of " how did a bigger country lose so much leverage in a bilateral negotiations with a puny neighboring state?" that is well-worth in-depth scrutiny and study by political scientists.
As the Swiss/US authorities reveals revelations on the 1MDB fiasco and trails of corruption and money laundering, with individuals arrested/charged and institutions fined and in certain cases bank licenses being rescinded (by the Singapore MAS) - very smartly to present a semblance of impartiality (on the part of Singapore and its regulators as a self-proclaimed financial hub or laundering haven?) at the nick of the moment. It is of interesting question and worth examining if Singapore is indeed serious in the first place of being clean - given its history and engineered past to benefit from proceeds of corruption, from the ghosts of Suharto, Taib just to mention a few.
With the success of Indonesian President Widodo's recent tax amnesty for wealthy Indonesians to repatriate funds long-stashed in Singapore back to Indonesia, and the initial confusion (or deliberate leg-dragging on Singapore's part?) by Singapore authorities' directives for all banks to redflag their (Indonesian) clients who are participating in the tax amnesty (i.e. who are ready to send their own money out of Singapore's banking system) - it is telling as to the real intentions of the well-engineered inner workings of Singapore Inc.
The 1997 Asia Financial Crisis proved to be a boon for Singapore with the onset of ethnic cleansing of Chinese in Indonesia, where wealthy Indonesian Chinese flocked and repatriated funds into the Singapore banking system and real estate - helping to propel the resource-strapped country.
Fast forward to 2013 - current, Singapore has yet emerged on global headlines as the first and final line of illegal money laundering. This time by the ruling political member in neighboring Malaysia who siphoned off USD681m vide a network of banks in Singapore in the 1MDB fiasco.
Given that it would have been impossible for the Singapore authorities and Central Bank (the Monetary Authority of Singapore or MAS) to miss out on the large quantum of fund flow, it has been indeed surprising that Singapore had remained surprisingly quiet on the 1MDB fiasco throughout much of the earlier investigations up till as late as 2015.
It was only with the Swiss and more prominently the US investigators having openly announced their intentions on the investigations, that the Singapore authorities including MAS seemingly " sprung alive." In that, they were ' surprisingly' fast in coming out with evidence of wrong-doing and targeted individuals/institutions - which naturally pointed to the conclusion that the Singapore authorities were already in knowledge and complicit to the transactions and laundering activities (but why were they not acting before the U.S./Swiss authorities?).
In the realm of pragmatically pursuing national interests (at all costs, and the expense of other sovereigns), the 1MDB fiasco has proven to be exactly that.
Indeed if recent memories were to be recalled, the leading Singapore political leader has continuously warmed up to his Malaysian counterpart (who was the leading perpetrator to the 1MDB fiasco) in recent years - possibly with the former in knowledge of much more hindsight of his new-found chum's hidden skeletons. In which one of the much publicized but least scrutinized being the ceding of prime stretches of Malaysian railroad lands in Singapore (to Singapore) in exchange for some land development rights in Singapore - in which the exchange and potential value (of exchange) is very much in favour of Singapore - which begs the question of " how did a bigger country lose so much leverage in a bilateral negotiations with a puny neighboring state?" that is well-worth in-depth scrutiny and study by political scientists.
As the Swiss/US authorities reveals revelations on the 1MDB fiasco and trails of corruption and money laundering, with individuals arrested/charged and institutions fined and in certain cases bank licenses being rescinded (by the Singapore MAS) - very smartly to present a semblance of impartiality (on the part of Singapore and its regulators as a self-proclaimed financial hub or laundering haven?) at the nick of the moment. It is of interesting question and worth examining if Singapore is indeed serious in the first place of being clean - given its history and engineered past to benefit from proceeds of corruption, from the ghosts of Suharto, Taib just to mention a few.
With the success of Indonesian President Widodo's recent tax amnesty for wealthy Indonesians to repatriate funds long-stashed in Singapore back to Indonesia, and the initial confusion (or deliberate leg-dragging on Singapore's part?) by Singapore authorities' directives for all banks to redflag their (Indonesian) clients who are participating in the tax amnesty (i.e. who are ready to send their own money out of Singapore's banking system) - it is telling as to the real intentions of the well-engineered inner workings of Singapore Inc.
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