Wednesday, 13 March 2019
Tuesday, 16 January 2018
Emerging Markets Rally
Global equities continue to rally as US equities hit new record highs. EM rally centred in Asia is expected to be sustained in 2018. Key markets in China including HK are expected to drive regional equity gains. Singapore is expected to continue its secular slide in significance as its frayed ties with China & notoriety for jinx equity listing performances along with conspicuous silent participatory roles in 1MDB corruption scam & subsequent hub for money laundering.
Indeed Singapore’s longheld strategy to be the regional & global hub for illicit & corruption proceeds laundering has been an open secret since Suharto’s reign when Indonesian tycoons & officials openly stashed slush funds. Such laundering “fame” reached greater heights subsequently when Taiwanese & PRC officials & businessmen sought tax havens & laundering mat for their fortunes. Hence the open promotion & selling of tiny Singapore by its de facto central bank MAS as Asia’s private banking hub in hopes of emulating such post-WWII successes of Switzerland.
Indeed Singapore’s longheld strategy to be the regional & global hub for illicit & corruption proceeds laundering has been an open secret since Suharto’s reign when Indonesian tycoons & officials openly stashed slush funds. Such laundering “fame” reached greater heights subsequently when Taiwanese & PRC officials & businessmen sought tax havens & laundering mat for their fortunes. Hence the open promotion & selling of tiny Singapore by its de facto central bank MAS as Asia’s private banking hub in hopes of emulating such post-WWII successes of Switzerland.
Friday, 24 March 2017
Singapore's longstanding tradition of labor exploitation
Singapore's Raycom was recently fined by court for measly S$17,500 for defaulting on employees' salaries, in one of the rare case whereby employers exploiting workers on the island state was reported, caught & actually brought to court.
Long known to be dependent on foreign workers & laborers, Singapore has little known reputation of being pro-Singaporean employers. In various little and unreported cases, workers in the country from Malaysia, China amongst other countries were made to work for long hours & comparatively discriminatorily lower pay compared to Singaporeans.
Worse, oft times the Singaporean employers would delay & default on payments and/or made unreasonable deductions off the pay of these foreign workers. In certain cases, the employers are known to hire foreigners without work permits knowingly to make these workers work for few months with little or no pay, and when pressed for pay by the workers, these employers would report these "illegal" workers to the authorities in open collusion to arrest these "illegal workers" who would then be arrested & forcibly deported from Singapore - & hey presto these Singaporean employers hence "save" on these salary expenses for couple of months thanks to the well-known efficient Singaporean authorities. Given the lax & almost non existent importance placed by Singaporean government on foreign workers & their inherent human rights & welfare, the Singaporean government & authorities have traditionally been a knowing & complicit party to these errant defaulting employers who would deploy dirty tactics at every possible juncture to con the hard earned salaries of these workers. Indeed well known stance of Singapore government in providing cover to these errant employers is truly what's cultivating such indecent & inhumane employment practices in the island nation, quite unbeknownst to the outside world since the victims are almost always lowly-paid, comparatively lesser educated foreigners from developing countries.
Long known to be dependent on foreign workers & laborers, Singapore has little known reputation of being pro-Singaporean employers. In various little and unreported cases, workers in the country from Malaysia, China amongst other countries were made to work for long hours & comparatively discriminatorily lower pay compared to Singaporeans.
Worse, oft times the Singaporean employers would delay & default on payments and/or made unreasonable deductions off the pay of these foreign workers. In certain cases, the employers are known to hire foreigners without work permits knowingly to make these workers work for few months with little or no pay, and when pressed for pay by the workers, these employers would report these "illegal" workers to the authorities in open collusion to arrest these "illegal workers" who would then be arrested & forcibly deported from Singapore - & hey presto these Singaporean employers hence "save" on these salary expenses for couple of months thanks to the well-known efficient Singaporean authorities. Given the lax & almost non existent importance placed by Singaporean government on foreign workers & their inherent human rights & welfare, the Singaporean government & authorities have traditionally been a knowing & complicit party to these errant defaulting employers who would deploy dirty tactics at every possible juncture to con the hard earned salaries of these workers. Indeed well known stance of Singapore government in providing cover to these errant employers is truly what's cultivating such indecent & inhumane employment practices in the island nation, quite unbeknownst to the outside world since the victims are almost always lowly-paid, comparatively lesser educated foreigners from developing countries.
Trumpcare on the verge of being rejected
Long after Trump & Ryan boosted of repealing Obamacare, the day of verdict is coming for House vote on the replacement by GOP's half baked AHCA which is seen by most quarters as falling short & likely to be rejected at the vote due today.
Tuesday, 21 March 2017
Singapore-listed oil & gas outfit Ezra files for bankruptcy in the US
Singapore-listed PLC Ezra Ltd filed for bankruptcy in the US, months after Singapore government & local banking analysts indicated that the sector had stabilized sending oil & gas counters Keppel Corp & Sembcorp to record highs.
Equity holders to Ezra are likely fully wiped out as the counter was suspended since 15 Mar, & will in any eventuality remain indefinitely suspended throughout the restructuring process.
Given that total liabilities exceeds total assets by a factor in excess of 2.5x, and likelihood of markedly lower realizable value of these assets in any event of crystallization, it is opine that not merely the shareholders will be wiped out, the bondholders will in all likelihood face total loss (if not near so).
Meanwhile primary lenders namely DBS, OCBC & UOB all local Singaporean banks will need to immediately recognize impairment of their books in excess of S$1billion, which is expected to hit the banks' 2Q & FYE17 earnings. Contrary to various research reports & analysts' views to-date, the impact to asset quality & earnings to these lenders are crystallized (i.e. real) despite possible prior provisioning. The prolonged global oil & gas downturn and beaten oil price due to loss of efficacy in OPEC supply cut in light of record shale drilling activities coming online have also all but sealed the avenues for a possible turnaround for balance sheet-stretched entities such as Ezra. Hence contrary to the cheerleading assurances by the Singapore government & bank-owned research arms, it is opine that Ezra has effectively ceased to be a viable ongoing concern. The application for bankruptcy protection in the US merely serves towards capitalizing on the more generous creditors' protection program for the purpose of buying time in attempt to flog off assets in an "as-orderly-as-possible" manner. That, as earlier discoursed will likely not happen given that potential suitors if any would not be in a hurry to jump in without a basement bargain price; which brings us back to the scenario of total wipe out of equity/bond-holders. The lenders with possibly slightly better levers in the (fire) sale process will in all likelihood exit a pennies to the dollar on asap basis given the total lack of expertise & depreciating/stigmatized assets held in the belly-up co.
Given that total liabilities exceeds total assets by a factor in excess of 2.5x, and likelihood of markedly lower realizable value of these assets in any event of crystallization, it is opine that not merely the shareholders will be wiped out, the bondholders will in all likelihood face total loss (if not near so).
Meanwhile primary lenders namely DBS, OCBC & UOB all local Singaporean banks will need to immediately recognize impairment of their books in excess of S$1billion, which is expected to hit the banks' 2Q & FYE17 earnings. Contrary to various research reports & analysts' views to-date, the impact to asset quality & earnings to these lenders are crystallized (i.e. real) despite possible prior provisioning. The prolonged global oil & gas downturn and beaten oil price due to loss of efficacy in OPEC supply cut in light of record shale drilling activities coming online have also all but sealed the avenues for a possible turnaround for balance sheet-stretched entities such as Ezra. Hence contrary to the cheerleading assurances by the Singapore government & bank-owned research arms, it is opine that Ezra has effectively ceased to be a viable ongoing concern. The application for bankruptcy protection in the US merely serves towards capitalizing on the more generous creditors' protection program for the purpose of buying time in attempt to flog off assets in an "as-orderly-as-possible" manner. That, as earlier discoursed will likely not happen given that potential suitors if any would not be in a hurry to jump in without a basement bargain price; which brings us back to the scenario of total wipe out of equity/bond-holders. The lenders with possibly slightly better levers in the (fire) sale process will in all likelihood exit a pennies to the dollar on asap basis given the total lack of expertise & depreciating/stigmatized assets held in the belly-up co.
Monday, 20 March 2017
Security in Malaysia worsens
A wealthy business woman in Johor Malaysia got kidnapped for 26 days, & was moved from Kulai Malaysia to Bintan Indonesia. Therein raises the question how could the Malaysia & Indonesia customs have missed the abduction. Or more sinisterly are the customs officials complicit to the abduction having taken bribes from the kidnappers.
Tuesday, 1 November 2016
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